Crypto assets typically cluster into a few behavior regimes: large-cap “macro” assets, protocol/utility assets, and narrative-driven meme/community assets. When fundamentals are unclear, the safest assumption is that price is primarily narrative and liquidity driven.
Liquidity drives volatility: shallow order books amplify every trade. That means charts can look “strong” while being structurally fragile. A trend that survives rising volume is more credible than a trend that survives only on thin prints.
Reflexivity: in crypto, price often creates the story that brings new buyers, which pushes price higher—until it doesn’t. Your job is to identify what would break the story (exchange delisting, contract risk, whale distribution, regulatory pressure, or simply attention moving elsewhere).
Practical approach: treat this as a probability game. You’re not trying to predict; you’re trying to avoid bad risk/reward. If you cannot verify supply, contract, and credible venues, you should assume tail risk is high.
Not publicly confirmed.