Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities estimates the U.S. "easily" spent more than $10 billion on air-defense systems in the first 48 hours. Iran launched 2,000+ drones and 771+ ballistic missiles, each requiring interceptors costing millions.
Source: NYT DealBook, Mar 4, 2026 (Niko Gallogly) · Jennifer Kavanagh / Defense Priorities
In June 2025's 12-day war, the U.S. expended up to 150 of 534 THAAD interceptors and 80 SM-3s — nearly 30% of the entire THAAD stockpile in 12 days. Production cannot keep pace: even at quadrupled rates, replacing 150 THAAD interceptors takes nearly 5 months.
At sustained conflict consumption, the entire U.S. interceptor stockpile could be exhausted in 4–5 weeks, creating vulnerabilities for NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Japan.
Source: Military Times, Mar 6, 2026 · CSIS (Cancian & Park, Mar 5 2026)
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Feb 28 · 04:00 UTCOperation Epic Fury beginsFirst wave: Tomahawk + JASSM-ER strikes on air defenses, C2 nodes. 1,000+ targets struck Day 1.
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Feb 28 · 04:30 UTCCyber/Space operations — 'first movers'Coordinated cyber and space operations conducted as opening phase, degrading Iranian C3 capabilities.
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Feb 28 · 06:30 UTC3 U.S. F-15EX aircraft lost to friendly fire from Kuwait$103,000,000 per airframe (CSIS); shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses in apparent misidentification. 3-year replacement timeline.Tracked cost: $309,000,000
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Feb 28 · 08:00 UTCFirst Tomahawk salvo — est. 160+ missiles160+ Tomahawk Block V at ~$3.6M each (CSIS replacement cost). Multiple waves of cruise missiles in opening phase.Tracked cost: $576,000,000
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Feb 28 · 12:00 UTCJASSM-ER strikes on hardened targetsEst. 60 JASSM-ER at ~$1.5M each.Tracked cost: $90,000,000
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Mar 1 · 02:00 UTCSecond wave strikes — DEAD/SEAD operationsSuppression of enemy air defenses, follow-on cruise missile and precision strikes. Tomahawk costs captured in opening salvo total.
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Mar 1 · 14:00 UTCGBU-57 MOP strikes on Fordow enrichment facilityEst. 8 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators at ~$3.5M each, delivered by B-2 Spirit ($150K/flight hr × 30 hrs per sortie).Tracked cost: $28,000,000
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Mar 1 · 18:00 UTCNaval strikes on Iranian forces — 9 vessels hitAnti-ship missile strikes on Iranian naval forces. Est. ~30–50 Harpoon and Naval Strike Missiles expended to neutralize 9 Iranian vessels.Tracked cost: $75,000,000
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Mar 2 · 20:00 UTCLUCAS drone first combat deploymentLUCAS autonomous combat drones used in strikes against Iran, first operational combat appearance. Per-unit costs classified.
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Mar 3 · 03:20 UTCB-1 Lancer bombers deployed to theater3 B-1B Lancers transit from CONUS. Flight costs captured in daily aircraft ops rate.
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Mar 3 · 04:56 UTCUS Embassy Saudi Arabia hit by Iranian dronesIranian drone strike on US Embassy in Saudi Arabia — first successful Iranian retaliation. Reconstruction/repair costs TBD.
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Mar 3 · 20:00 UTCB-1B Lancers conduct deep strikes in Iran3 B-1B Lancers strike deep targets. Bulk JDAM costs captured in daily non-tracked ordnance rate.Tracked cost: $7,000,000
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Mar 4 · 00:00 UTCIran launches 2,500+ missiles and dronesIran fires 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000+ drones. Coalition intercepted 500 cruise/ballistic missiles and 1,300 drones through Mar 3. CSIS estimates interceptor costs at $1.2B–$3.7B.
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Mar 4 · 00:00 UTCUS bombers hit 200+ targets in 72 hoursIntensive bombing campaign across Iran targeting military facilities and arsenals.Tracked cost: $15,000,000
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Mar 4 · 09:00 UTCUS Navy destroys 17 Iranian warshipsAdditional naval strikes destroying 17 more Iranian vessels, bringing total Iranian naval losses to 26 ships.Tracked cost: $30,600,000
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Mar 4 · 12:00 UTCUS submarine sinks IRIS Dena — first since WWIIUS fast attack submarine fires a single Mark 48 heavyweight torpedo at the IRIS Dena. First US submarine torpedo sinking since 1945.Tracked cost: $400,000
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Mar 5 · 12:00 UTCCENTCOM releases 100-hour operational summaryUS Central Command: 2,000 precision strikes conducted, 20 Iranian ships sunk total in first 100 hours.
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Mar 5 · 18:00 UTCIranian drone encounter forces US carrier withdrawalIran claims US aircraft carrier withdrew from Strait of Hormuz area after drone encounter.
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Mar 6 · 12:00 UTCPrSM missile — first combat use in IranUS CENTCOM confirms first operational deployment of Precision Strike Missiles in Operation Epic Fury.
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Mar 6 · 14:00 UTCFourth school struck — Tehran elementary schoolShahid Hamedani School in Tehran's Niloufar Square hit in US-Israeli strikes. Condemned by international observers.
- Nancy Youssef (WSJ) — Pentagon preliminary estimate: $1B/day via congressional official
- NYT DealBook (Niko Gallogly, Mar 4 2026) — Kavanagh/Defense Priorities interceptor analysis
- Military Times (Mar 6, 2026) — Interceptor stockpile data, production rates, depletion timeline
- CSIS (Cancian & Park, Mar 5 2026) — $3.7B first 100 hours; munitions, aircraft losses, interceptor breakdown
- Penn Wharton Budget Model (Kent Smetters) — $40B–$95B direct, up to $210B economic impact
- Center for American Progress — >$5B through Day 4
- DoD Comptroller FY2024/25 reimbursable flight-hour rates
- Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cost reports
- Government Accountability Office (GAO) sustainment reports
- Brown University Costs of War Project
- DoD/CENTCOM official statements
- AP, Reuters, AFP, Al Jazeera reporting
This tracker exists because the public deserves real-time transparency about the cost of military operations. The counter uses the Pentagon's own preliminary estimate of $1 billion per day. Independent analyses suggest the true cost may be significantly higher.
